The hottest South Korean export has been declining

  • Detail

The export of South Korea has been declining for three consecutive months

the export situation of South Korea has turned sharply downward for three consecutive months, and what is before this export-oriented country is the challenge of pillar industries and the sluggish internal and external environment

recently, the Ministry of industry, trade and resources of South Korea released the foreign trade data of South Korea in February 2019. Data showed that South Korea's import and export volume both fell in the month. Among them, the total export volume of South Korea in the month was US $39.56 billion, down 11.1% year-on-year and 5.9% month on month. This is the third consecutive month of export decline in South Korea since December 2018. The import volume of that month was US $36.47 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% and a month on month decrease of 1.7%

at the same time, although South Korea's trade balance still maintained a surplus for 85 consecutive months, with the impact of the overall decline in exports, the pace of corporate surplus is also slowing down, and the South Korean industry has a sense of crisis

in an interview with China business news, Li Guoxian, a professor at the school of political science and economics at Korea University, said that the main reason behind the current export crisis in South Korea is that South Korea's exports are too dependent on specific industries

pillar industries are in crisis

an official of the Ministry of industry, trade and resources of South Korea told China business and economics that the current round of decline in South Korean exports was mainly due to the decline in semiconductor demand leading South Korean exports and the continuous decline in unit prices

specifically, the export volume of Korean semiconductor products in February 2019 was US $6.77 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8%. As the "half of South Korea's exports", the export volume of the semiconductor industry has not only declined for three consecutive months, but also spread to the whole industry. The export volume of wireless communication equipment, display screen, computer products and other high-tech industries also fell for 4 to 7 months

according to the data of the Korea Department of statistics, the "Korean ICT producer delivery index in January 2019" of the production of South Korea's high-tech industry was 90.9, a decrease of 12.3% compared with the same period last year. When using UTM to test materials, we can judge whether the materials are suitable for some specific processing or end use, showing the largest decline every ten years

a relevant report from the Korea semiconductor industry association shows that in February 2019, the global market unit price of 8GB system memory dram (dynamic random access memory) was $5.9, a decrease of 36.8% compared with the same period last year, while the global market unit price of 128GB flash NAND flash was $5, a decrease of 25.2% compared with the same period last year

the report also shows that as of the third quarter of 2018, the global market will face an oversupply of semiconductor chip products, with the highest proportion of oversupply reaching 2.5%, while in the first quarter of 2018, there is still a 2.1% shortage in the market

in addition, although the export volume of other export pillar industries in South Korea, such as automobile manufacturing, machinery, steel, etc., increased slightly, the growth rate slowed down to a certain extent. Taking the automobile, the third largest export product of South Korea, as an example, the export volume in February 2019 increased by only 2.7% compared with the same period last year, and the trend of capacity transfer overseas has become increasingly serious

poor internal and external environment

Li Guoxian believes that South Korea, as an export-oriented economy with a foreign trade coefficient of nearly 100%, has made some achievements in specific industries, but because the overall export situation is dependent, when a serious crisis occurs in an industry, it is easy to directly affect the overall economic situation

(1) elasticity stage in this stage, "South Korea, as one of the first countries in the world with negative birth rate growth, its domestic demand stagnates. If there are twists and turns in foreign trade data, it will directly affect the future economic lifeline of South Korea and gradually make South Korea move towards the bottom of the global trade industry chain." Li Guoxian said

according to the data released by the Ministry of health and welfare of South Korea, the birth rate of South Korea in 2018 was 0.98, which not only decreased by nearly 5% compared with 2017, but also has become the "almost only" country in the world with a birth rate lower than 1

"the existing global trade protectionism has gradually occupied the mainstream, and some countries protect their own industries by increasing barriers, which is' even worse 'for the South Korean economy that needs to rely on exports." Li Guoxian pointed out

according to the statistics of the Ministry of industry, trade and resources of South Korea, the export volume of Korean semiconductor products to China in February 2019 decreased by 17.4% year-on-year. Huang zhe Zhou, executive director of Korea semiconductor industry association and chairman of Korea Chou sing Engineering Co., Ltd., told China business in 2017 that, unlike South Korea, Chinese enterprises have a "longer-term" view of the semiconductor industry. For example, South Korean enterprises do not pay much attention to the localization of production equipment in the process of developing semiconductor equipment. Therefore, when overseas enterprises at the upstream of the value chain adjust prices, Korean enterprises are easily affected by it, reducing the original price competitiveness of Korean enterprises

the government provides support

the decline of South Korea's foreign trade data, which has maintained a good trend for many years, has naturally become a major bad news affecting the South Korean economy

on March 4, South Korea's vice premier and finance minister Hong Nanji presided over the "economic vitality countermeasures meeting" which could leave the eyepiece on the lens, and said that the South Korean government would do its best to maintain an annual export volume of US $600billion

specifically, the government will provide trade financial support of 235 trillion won (about 1.4 trillion yuan) to Korean import and export enterprises, and set up eight special financial support measures of 35.7 trillion won to provide special support to many industries with rapid growth in recent years, such as environmental protection industry, power batteries and Life Sciences

at the same time, in view of the foreign market with a rapid decline in exports recently, South Korea has increased the amount of export guarantee insurance for relevant enterprises by 10% to reduce the risk possibility of small and medium-sized enterprises in the process of trade. At the same time, export marketing funds with a total amount of 352.8 billion won will be provided to foreign trade enterprises, an increase of 5.8% over last year's budget. In addition, with the help of the "new North Policy" and "New South policy" platforms proposed by the Moon Jae-in government, South Korean enterprises are actively supported to expand and develop in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia

however, Li Guoxian believes that if the vulnerability of South Korea's economic and trade system and industry itself is not properly addressed, this series of policies is likely to be "useless"

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI